Outlook and Risks
It seems that the prospects for further participation by European companies in the North Caspian project will be affected by many risks in the first place the technological difficulties in the way of withdrawal, "Kashagan" and smaller fields in the stage of industrial development, the situation in world oil prices, as well as the policy of the Kazakh authorities.
First, main group at risk in the North Caspian project is connected with the already mentioned technological complexity, because of which repeatedly postponed the start date of production of hydrocarbons. In particular, a few years ago these dates were determined for years 2010-2013, and in 2011 a year is 2016, and perhaps this is also not a final date. One gets the impression that the technical difficulties, if not nullify the prospects of the North Caspian Project, then at least make it extremely costly. As a result, the real cost of the project, ultimately, may be much higher even than the published estimates European companies.
This assumption is supported by an official statement the director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Kazakhstan A.Khudaybergenova that "the process of preparing Kashagan is very difficult, causing a steady increase in costs." This is supported by evidence and that the American ConocoPhilips since 2010 plans to sell some of its assets, which, in the opinion of management of the corporation, not of great interest in the strategic plan. Some of these are not long-term assets and the share is ConocoPhilips (8,4%) in the North-Caspian project.
As a result, it is difficult to say whether the new operator (NCOC) break the deadlock in the North-Caspian project. First of all, because changes in the management of this project nor in the least make it easier to overcome the already mentioned above, technological barriers, which are the main obstacle to the project. Moreover, the establishment of a joint operating company (SOC) is quite risky, since we cannot exclude that the plans of member companies of CSR development and transportation time can become fragmented, and then the fate of the project can be a long time to become even more uncertain.
Second, Considering that the "North Caspian oil" in any case will be characterized by excessive production costs, it is very dependent on world prices: its production and transportation can be cost effective if sustained high prices. However, warranties do not. If, however, will fall in oil prices, European companies are likely to lose interest in the North-Caspian project, either sell their assets to other foreign companies (presumably Chinese), or suspend the project until "better times".
Third, is a certain risk and unpredictability of the policy of Kazakhstan, for example, as is the case with the Karachaganak project. It is known that the Kazakh authorities have for a year put pressure on the European members of the consortium Karachaganak Petroleum Operating B.V (KRO), developing the Karachaganak field in order to acquire the assets. In addition, in the case of the North Caspian project Kazakhstan anyway, but took advantage of the fact the postponement of the start of production in order to oust foreign investors and increase the proportion of "KMG" in the project. There is no guarantee that in case of large-scale oil production on “Kashagan” Astana is not yet takes advantage of some pretext to further increase the proportion of "KMG" in the North-Caspian project. However, it should be noted that, unlike the Karachaganak project, the risk from today's perspective is minimal: Given the extreme technological complexity and cost of the North Caspian project, Kazakhstan is unlikely to be able to implement it without European investors, "substitute" for which there can neither Russian nor Chinese companies.
In general, another delay in the North-Caspian project and it is uncertain long-term prospects of participation of European investors in this project not only raises the question becoming one of the world's largest oil exporters, but also adversely affects the economic situation in the country, especially a western regions.
The fact is that during the first decade of XXI century North-Caspian project was the engine of overall economic development of western Kazakhstan, as the development of such large-scale and technologically complex deposits entailed the development of numerous support industries (not only in oil and gas branch). For example, due to the fact that the development assumes production of large steel structures weighing 10-20 tons, in the Mangistau region is mainly due to the financial resources of the Italian company Saipem were created by large production of steel. Due to the fact that the project required about 200 different vessels, including 140 shipping barges in the seaside village of Bautino was commissioned a new ship repair yard (in addition to what was built during the Soviet era) and a new base of support for offshore operations.
However, in 2010 delineated a clear trend to an outflow of foreign investment, and production of the above stops. The main reason - among investors shattered confidence in the North-Caspian project, as well as growing doubts about the existence of "big oil" on the Caspian shelf of Kazakhstan.
Vladimir PARAMONOV
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